The Karnataka Conundrum

NaMo came and NaMo spoke, but whether BJP conquers or not will be evident only after counting after May 5, 2013 elections. Everyone is tight-lipped about the outcome of the assembly elections in Karnataka. The Congress is (possibly rightly) feeling confident, while the BJP is (certainly well deservedly) feeling down and almost out.

In 2008, the BJP came to power on its own riding on the sympathy wave for its star, B S Yeddiurappa. In the past four five years a lot of water has flown through the river Kaveri. A detailed and complicated analysis of what happened to BJP in Karnataka in the past years is not the purpose of this article. Therefore, as lay persons, let us look at the situation in a somewhat simplified manner. What we are presenting here is a mix of facts and fiction, information and imagination.

In 2004 the BJP (NDA) was over confident of winning; but it lost. In 2009, it was confident and it lost again. Just prior to 2009, the BJP had won, quite comfortably and quite convincingly, in Gujarat (2007) and Karnataka (2008) assembly polls. And both states did farely well for the BJP in parliamentary elections too. However, if the 2004 defeat was shattering, the 2009 defeat left the central BJP leadership flustered and frustrated. And, thereafter the central leadership, almost went after "state leaderships" with a mad vengeance. While a Kalyan-Singh was done on Uma Bharti post 2004; the same was done on BSY in Karnataka post 2009. Well, not immediately though.

To cut a long story short, the internal conflict in the BJP is, as the grapevine has it, about the rivalry between B S Yeddiurappa (now in KJP) and H N Ananth Kumar. It is not that without this rivalry the BJP would surely have won Karnataka-2013; but it is quite possibly so that with this rivalry the BJP is sure to lose Karnataka; notwithstanding Modi's token campaign. While it is true that Modi has many fans, but whether they will turn into votes for the BJP in Karnataka assembly polls is still far from certain. They will surely turn into votes for Modi in the parliamentary elections, if Modi is declared the PM candidate.

Presently there are four major players in Karnataka. Alphabetically: (1) BJP (2) Congress (3) JD(S) and (4) KJP. Our conjecture is that had the BJP not split, the contest would have been between the BJP and JD(S). This is because the Congress' reputation is quite low, thanks to scam filled UPA past. In a recent "survey" the CSDS predicted that the Cong will win 100+ seats on its own. That seems far fetched to us. Had Congress not been as tainted with corruption as it is as of now (though it is largely the work of the UPA at the center), it could have made huge gains (possibly as predicted by the CSDS). However that, most likely, will not be the case. The CSDS survey appears to be a "sponsored survey".

For whatever it is worth, our wild guess is 224 seats will be divided thus: One party getting about 80-100; One party getting about 60-80; One party getting about 35-45; the fourth getting about 20-30; and Others getting the rest. Or a somewhat more abstract description would be that the parties will get seats like 1/3+, 1/4+, 1/4-, and 1/4-- (as fraction of 224). Our surmise is that parties will get seats in the following order: KJP: 80-100 (1/3+); JD(S): 60-80 (1/4+); Cong: 35-45 (1/4- or even lesser); BJP: 20-30 (1/4-- or even lesser). 

BSY is no saint, but he has quite likely been wronged by the 'central leadership'. HNA is no devil, but he has quite likely played the 'central leadership'. The present situation is such that KJP does not mind losing so long as BJP loses badly and vice versa. It is possible that both lose, but it is highly unlikely that both will gain. This is a battle of survival for both BSY and HNA, or rather an arms wrestling contest between them. While BSY is largely relying on his own resources, HNA is relying on the already established BJP cadre. And yet, the hearts of the cadre themselves are being torn! While the 'workers' want to work for 'high ideals', the leaders seem to work for their egos!

The strategy behind pitching Modi against BSY is that at least one of them will lose and that reduces one rising-politician-from-state who might become a rival of the 'central command'. This is Congress culture! Modi in his speech was focussed in criticizing Congress while he made oblique comparisons between BSY, and Shankar Singh Vaghela and Keshubhai Patel of Gujarat. If this is a strategy to divide anti-BJP votes, then it seems to be a stupid strategy, at least in Karnataka. On the other hand if BSY declares that his party will support NaMo for PM, then he can minimize the adverse impact of Modi's campaign for BJP on the prospects of KJP. If KJP declares its support for NaMo for PM, it will be the first party (even before BJP) to do so!

However, NaMo has played into the hands of the 'central command' by agreeing to campaign in Karnataka. If politics is about justice, then it must as much be about justice within the party too. And the worst part is, if Karnataka does not end up being Gujarat, then it will end up becoming Uttar Pradesh!

Last but not least: While one of the greatest threat to Hindus comes from secularism, there is a mad rush among parties to be secular (read Islam appeasers). Ditto Socialism. 

The IQ Revolution that the Hindus Need

Election fever is rising. NaMo vs RaGa music records are being played endlessly. Thus we see both these leaders, as personalities, indulging in rhetoric of melodrama and blood-pumping. In this brouhaha the stakes are being reduced to 'Development' vs 'Inclusion'.

However, some of the most important common sensical questions are being avoided. It seems as if there is a lack of IQ (Cognitive Intelligence) and lack the courage to ask the IQ (Islam Question).

First: Lacking Cognititve Sense:

The Moron-ish Media keeps asking: "Where are the Big Ideas?". Don't they remember what the big ideas of Jawahar led to by 1991? Why doesn't Moron Media tell how they will evaluate Big Ideas? Then, what indeed are the big ideas that are being paraded? For NaMo it is "Development" and RaGa it is "Inclusiveness".

However, there lies the grave danger and a great problem. What is the problem? The cognitive problem is that the complex nature of the situation is being reduced to a sort of Marxist Economic Constructs.

Will somebody ask NM: What his 'plan B' is (other than Confidence) if `Development' pushes us to a Social Disaster?

Will somebody ask RG: What his 'plan B' is (other than Jawaharian platitudes) if `Inclusiveness' pushes us to Economic Disaster?

And the biggest irony is that even in purely 'material' sense these ideas have been failing, for example:

On the one hand, Inclusiveness, Minorityism, Affirmative Action have made the "victims" even Bigger "victims". This means that the sense of entitlement for freebies has taken gigantic proportions. Rice at Two rupee a kg, free electricity, free house (slum dwellers' relocation), 100 day an year guaranteed employment (read guaranteed money). Thus, this increasing  indulgence towards wealth redistribution is a sure recipe for an Economic Disaster.

On the other hand, 'Development' has made cities even more crowded than they ever were. Thus you will have no water even if you are willing to pay. No road space to drive even when you own car, no electricity even though you own an air conditioner, three commuting hours to be added to nine working hours, an impending housing bubble in India(?), and what not. 

And the worst is yet to be mentioned! And that is, while not delivering on "such convenience issues" , the whole paradigm is not just oblivious, rather it is deliberately silent about one of the the real threats that is facing us. The threat of unethical wealth redistribution of Socialism, the threat of unethical Social (and possibly Environmental) Disaster of Development, and a near total ignorance of the threats of Islam.

Which brings us to the question of Courage. Is it that these politicians lack the minimal intelligence needed to perceive the threat of Jihad which is inextricably linked to Islam? Or the threat of Mao-violence which is inextricably linked to Marxist Ideology? It seems unlikely. The cleverness with which the politicians pull off the tricks of demagoguery betrays that they lack courage and not perception.

For example, notice that while there are increased threats and incidents of  Maoist and Jihadi terror, all purportedly against 'injustice' resulting from lack of 'development' and lack of 'inclusion', the fundamental cause seems to be insufficient appeasement and successful bullying by the nuisance makers. Not just that, the most obvious causes of them (especially in the case of Jihadi terror) namely Socialism and Islam are not being mentioned at all. More over, any efforts to mention them (especially the latter) are being high-handedly dealt with and are being mercilessly demonised, if not silenced.

Thus while every plausible stratagem is being used, for example, to demonize 'patriarchy' and push Marxist Feminism, whenever crimes against women take place; even a hint of the suggestion that Islam is intimately related to Jihadi terror, is considered 'Hate Speech' to be silenced by the abuse of Article-66-A. 

Hindus need to become acutely aware of these ploys. Hindus need to inculcate an awareness of being Hindus. Hindus need to unite as Hindus qua Hindus.

While crimes against women have to be dealt with very sternly (see for example here, here, here and here), we must strongly resist the push of cultural Marxism of Political Correctness (Feminism and the like). Similarly, devious designs of Islam to bring the whole world (and thus Bharat too) under its Sharia must be resisted with equal if not much greater force.

The strategy of the politicians of pushing superficial choices to obfuscate real issues must be assiduously thwarted. Hindus need to remain adroitly aware and must use all their intelligence to force right ideas into the discourse.

Ban Halal not Gulal

Last Deepavali we got to know of a new development. In posh schools run by minority communities the students (many if not most of who are Hindus) were being discouraged if not dissuaded from bursting fire-crackers as part of Deepavali celebrations. That these crackers pollute the air was given as the reason. We asked a few students if any alternative ways of celebrating the festival were suggested, we got no answers. We smelled a rat. Though, after a while, we forgot about it. This Holi, the media was abuzz with how huge quantities of water is wasted in celebrating Holi. And it was at once confirmed that the smelling rat was that of anti-Hinduism.

It is very very important to realize that we need to develop a We-are-Hindus-and-we-love-Hindus consciousness. We also need to develop an attitude of asserting our rights, and our liberties. In stead, all the so called extreme right wing Hindutva groups bleat like sheep.

It was not in the least surprising that the self-annointed Hindutva groups were thumping chest about how IPL (the cricket tournament) would result in a waste of much more water. While environmental and resource conservation concerns are legitimate, it is very annoying to see the pseudo-Hindus run for cover and take apologetic and defensive positions. There was none who had the audacity to say: Ban Halal not Gulal.

Dabbled in Twitter; Back to Blogger!

We have been away from blogging for a while, and quite infrequent from blogging for a longer while. In the mean time we dabbled in Twitter. Now we propose to strike a better balance (so, much less tweeting!). We invite reader's views on what would be a good balance.