There has been a huge hue and cry that the PM of the country should be secular. We did address a related issue in an earlier article (see here). Either as a result of that there has been a strong force or pressure to secularize Narendra Modi. We do not claim it to be an exhaustive analysis, however, we present here our guesses on the matter. After the next general elections, loosely speaking, one of the following outcomes will emerge:
1. UPA wins/manages a majority (unlikely? Not so much if EVM's are used!)
2. BJP wins 225+
3. BJP wins 150+
4. BJP wins 150(-) and Cong wins 100(-).
Please note that we are not mentioning NDA. The reasons will be made clear as we proceed. Whether it is outcome (2) or (3,4) will also depend upon what compromises the BJP makes to save the 'NDA'. Also, before the elections, the BJP will have to pick from the following choices:
a. With Modi as declared PM candidate.
b. With Modi hinted as candidate but not explicitly declared.
c. With Modi not declared but not ruled out.
d. With Modi declared as a non-candidate (without declaring a candidate).
e. With non-Modi as declared candidate.
The BJP guesses but is unsure that they will make maximum gains with option (a), however, they are afraid that the NDA will split and scatter if that is done; especially they fear that Nitish Secular Kumar will desert along with his coterie. Also there are many Modi-haters within the BJP. Therefore many in the BJP will want to attempt (c); or at best do a (b) and tell Nitish in private that Modi will not be the PM. Such in the BJP want outcome (2) with option (b,c) but will even settle for outcome (3). This gives them the maximum flexibility. In this situation however, there will be immense in-fighting within the BJP. There will be a competition to be seen as the most Secular to garner the support of Regional 'secular' Parties. Most regional parties would prefer the situations (3) and (4), for that gives them the maximum bargaining power. The Congress would prefer situations (1) and (4).
For the sake of Hindu survival, Modi or (Modi++, a move towards Hindu friendliness) is necessary. Please note that without Modi, it will be one more strongly anti-Hindu government. That is why we have said this.
With outcome (1), a total revolution by Hindus including another partition between a Hindu and non-Hindu country will be the only solution for Hindu-survival. At the moment, one can hope that such a situation does not arise, but it is better to be prepared!
With outcome (2) and Modi as PM, a decade of stable non-Congress, less anti-Hindu government may be expected.
With outcome (3) A non-Modi BJP PM will be a Vajpeyi-clone, and an NDA with Vajpeyi-clone will result in Kargil-Kandahar-event-clones! Hindus must want to avoid not only Mumbai 26/11, but also Kargil-Kandahar-clones!
With outcome (4) A third front PM with outside support from Congress will be the result. This will lead to more explicit Secular (anti-Hindu) activity and the Cong. will pull the plugs in about 2-3 years. This will be followed by the Congress returning to power, and the nation is back to square one!
Thus, only outcome (2) with Modi as PM is a somewhat feasible option. For such an outcome, we need to drive the message that the Hindu Voter is ready and kicking! Hindu sympathisers need a strategy for next 3-4 elections and not for just the next elections. If they secularise themselves or bend over backwards to accommodate the third(rate) front, they are doomed.
Also, for outcome (2), BJP will need to do (a). If BJP goes for anything other than (a), we strongly wish that the BJP splits and a new alliance with MOdi-as-PM-candidate emerges. Such an alliance must strive to win 225+ seats. Even otherwise, as we said, Hindus need a strategy for next 3-4 elections, so that Hindu-alliance ultimately wins a majority.
As an example, consider the following. Most people think that UPA means Congress, whereas they think that the BJP means the NDA! Mark the difference! While the Congress, despite citing "coalition political compulsions" to wriggle out of uncomfortable situations, constantly asserts its supremacy (by hook or by crook, as it did in the Presidential elections); the BJP again and again establishes itself as a pussy in dealing with its alliance partners! The BJP needs to realize that voters of this country will be unwilling to vote for a coalition led by a party which lacks in self confidence.
The right strategy for the BJP, if they are looking for Hindu support, would be to declare their policy to be unabashedly pro-Hindu and explicitly anti-anti-Hindu. Modi as the candidate can be is a way of communicating this ideology. The Vajpeyi Advani way of begging and pleading for freedom from political untouchability is an expressway towards doom. Rather they must emphasize that the anti-Hindus are united in the form of Cong and the third front, and thus any genuine change can only come by electing an explicitly non anti-Hindu party or coalition.
Anti-anti-Hindus must try to consolidate themselves and win single-handedly. When in doubt contest. Do not look to unite anti-Congress votes, look to divide anti-Hindu votes. Don't focus on defeating the Congress, focus on winning! Even if BJP does not want to be a hostage to Modi, it needs to take a stand which tilts more towards Hindus than Modi's stand. Stand for stronger pro-Hindu policies and declare that the most pro-Hindu candidate will be made PM. Nitish Secular Kumar must be told that he is welcome to aspire to become a PM supported by the BJP provided he becomes the most pro-Hindu among the contenders for the post of PM! Otherwise he is at liberty to hope to be the PM with Congress support.
Modi who seems wont to harp on his development agenda must answer the following question for himself. Between an India which is a Economically Rich (Developed) Islamic Nation and an India which is Developing Sanatana Bharat, what would he choose as his vision? Notwithstanding the fact that the adjective Developed-Islamic is an oxymoron, we emphasize that we prefer a Developing Sanatana Bharat over a Rich-Islamic-Nation as our vision.
Oh, Hindus, if you are looking for Hindu-survival as a step towards Hindu-revival, the need is to resist all attempts at Secularisation of political theater. Don't Secularize Modi, Hinduise the Remaining Contenders for PM. That is the way; there are hardly any other ways. Hindus must look to move the political discourse towards pro-Hindu stance.