Monday, September 17, 2012

Three Poles in Election-2014: All need Similar Strategies! What should Hindus do?

The forthcoming general elections are becoming seemingly more and more redundant. It should come as no surprise to many that it is so. What seems most obvious is that if the elections are going to be triangular contests, in all probability there will be a hung parliament, and hung parliaments usually result in a hung government!

The three poles in the forthcoming elections are  A - The Third Front (and their sympathizers), B - The BJP and C - The Congress. Whether some members of A are acting as if they are constituents of C-led UPA or B-led NDA is just an eye-wash. The moment there is a hung parliament, there will be a rush amongt UPA minus Congress, as well as, NDA minus BJP to rush towards A. Only if A appears doomed from day one will it stop them. However one important fact is that even if A does not appear to be doomed on day one, it will inevitably be doomed.

In all likelihood, any A -government will not last more than 2-3 years, and more over, in the succeeding mid-term elections it is C - the Congress which will make the maximum gains, unless ... Unless, the BJP is astute enough to do what is clearly needed.

The 'common' Strategy:

The next elections are going to be fought on the staple diet of 'Corruption' with 'Secularism' as the tastemaker. Each of the three (A,B, and C) want to portray the remaining two as two sides of the same coin. However, there is a big catch here. B and C consider only each other as main enemy. The people, until now, expect A and B as a large group (Opposition which must be united!), and A and C can conveniently paint B as anti-secular or communal. Thus the theme of the message from each would be:

A - Congress is Corrupt and BJP is Communal, and both are anti-weaker-sections, etc. The comments by Mayawati exemplify this.

C - BJP is Communal, A are OK but can not run the government and have had "partnership" with communal-BJP in the past. The way Congress spokespersons heap contempt on BJP and massage the third (rate) front bear testimony to it.

We will discuss B's options in a moment.

What is obvious is that the above themes work well for A and C. A - The Third (rate) Front knows that they are in a win-win situation. Either they form a government with a PM from their ranks, or they support a government with a PM from B or C. In either case, they get minsterial berths and loads of cash! C is too happy to support A because it knows that either it can dictate terms to A otherwise once A falters they (C) will return to power. Please note that B is unable to dictate or manipulate when it supports A. Mayawati (UP) and Nitish Kumar (Bihar) are standing examples!

Thus B - The BJP, have to make a distinct choice from the following options:

Option-1 : They project themselves as the leader of NDA and attempt to win as a group. In this option they will be hamstrung by the requirement to be 'truly secular'. However much they may harp on true-secular Savarkarian cultural nationalism of 'Hindutva', this approach, in our opinion, will not take off, and the worst part is, even if it takes off, it will be self-damaging in the long run (i.e. next 3-4 elections).

Option-2: They project themselves as the party with 'only viable alternative ideas' and go for winning on their own. In this, they will be free to speak their agenda, plain and simple. Their job will be to communicate to the voter what their vision is. Corruption-free governance should be the unsaid given to be reinforced by performances.

Now the only way they can genuinely claim to be different is if they question and reject Secularism and Socialism etc. As long as the BJP is consumed with the desire for projecting itself as "truly secular" it is doing a disservice to itself. Further, it is doing a much greater disservice to those Hindus who the BJP imagines are in its kitty but who are much distressed by the absence of any tangible alternative. The popularity of Modi as PM and growing unpopularity of Nitish as Secular is a testimony to the same. Nitish promises Secular Development which will result in Developed (Rich) Islamic State; and Modi, at least, seems to be open to offering least (among the current candidates) resistance to a glimpse of Sanatana Bharat.

On the other hand, notice how Congress humiliated its own PM P V Narasimha Rao because he was perceived as lesser anti-Hindu compared to what the Congress would have wanted. With Congress having blood of lakhs of Hindus during partition and Mulayam Singh having blood of Hindus in 1990, it is they who must be untouchable political parties! With a mentor like Kanshiram it is Mayawati whose party must be untouchable.

The BJP must shun begging to be included by these 'untouchables' in their group, rather they must boldly condemn these parties and educate the masses about what these parties stand for! 

In our opinion, any party that presents itself as opposed to Secularism and Socialism (with substantive arguments) will be the alternative that the large majority is looking for, and that is what the nation needs for its own welfare. If the BJP prefers the first option (option-1) then the Hindus must and will reject it. The Hindus must build for themselves a party which will boldly represent them. Thus, if the BJP seeks to gain Hindu support, it must choose the second option (option-2). With second option it must go for an all out win, failing which it must allow the Congress and the Third Front to collude. It must reject A and C as secular and socialist. It is only then that the new vision of non-secular non-socialist option will emerge. The A and C combo may flutter and stutter for a while, but it is bound to fail in the end. If not in the immediate next election, within 3-4 elections, the BJP (or a Hindu Alliance) will be able to form a government on its own, with a mandate for carte blanche!

Hindus or their aspiring representatives will do well to understand very clearly  the unholy alliance between the anti-Hindus C and A. The burden of proof to demonstrate that they are not anti-Hindu must be on C and A. The BJP, until now, has been taking upon itself the burden to demonstrate that it is not anti-Muslim, and thereby tying itself into knots. If BJP chooses to pursue such suicidal directions, it is high time that Hindus built an alternative for themselves.

Finally, one must always bear in mind, winning elections can only be a means, the end is to rebuild Sanatana Bharat. 

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